Mortgage rates moved higher Friday morning after a much stronger-than-expected August Jobs Report showed the labor market remains resilient.
Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times the 55,000 expected. Previous months were also revised higher, while labor force participation improved for the first time in nearly a year. The stronger employment picture pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its September meeting.
The 10-Year Treasury moved to approximately 4.77%, putting renewed upward pressure on mortgage pricing.
What’s Driving Rates Right Now?
Hiring was much stronger than expected. August payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly exceeding forecasts.
Previous months looked better, too. June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs.
The labor market continues to show resilience. Unemployment held at 4.1%, while labor force participation improved.
The service economy remains strong. This week’s ISM Services report beat expectations, while its Prices Paid component reached a four-year high—another sign inflation pressures haven’t disappeared.
Markets increased expectations for another Fed rate hike. The stronger jobs data pushed the probability of a September increase to roughly 60%.
Lower oil prices provided some relief. Energy prices eased from their recent highs, helping offset some inflation concerns.
What’s Next?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – September 11
Federal Reserve Meeting – September 16
Bottom Line for Borrowers
Friday’s Jobs Report was a reminder of how quickly the rate outlook can change. After several reports suggested the labor market was cooling, August’s numbers showed hiring remains much stronger than expected. That pushed Treasury yields—and mortgage rates—higher.
The next major test comes with next week’s inflation report. For homebuyers and homeowners, continued rate volatility is likely, making it more important to focus on your individual numbers and financing options rather than trying to perfectly time the market.
Key Level to Watch
The 10-Year Treasury is near 4.77%, putting it in an important range for mortgage pricing. A move back below 4.75% could provide some relief, while a move above 4.80% could create additional upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Rate info as of 09/04/2026, subject to change. Not financial/investment advice. Consult a financial advisor for your specific situation.
September 7, 2026
