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Weekly Market Update
Mortgage rates fell this week, as we received plenty of data in the last week, with the market appearing to give the Fed the green light for its next rate cut this month. Nonfarm payrolls and CPI both came in at levels that supported the Fed being able to cut later this month. Still, we saw rates coming in higher despite that data. The labor market still appears strong, with the caveat being that if the unemployment rate ticks up much higher in the future months, the Fed will get alarmed. CPI has been coming in higher the past few months, with both headline and core inflation above the 2% inflation target the Fed has. The market is pricing in roughly two rate cuts for 2025, which feels conservative. The last couple of years it seems that the market was pricing in too many rate cuts, so, the hope is that we will get a few more cuts in 2025.
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U.S. 10-year Treasury on Thursday afternoon is at 4.33%.
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Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than analyst’s expectations (242k claims vs expectations of 220k).
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CPI came in-line with analyst’s expectations (0.3% m/m).
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PPI came in higher than analyst’s expectations (0.4% m/m vs expectations of 0.2% m/m).
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ISM Services came in lower than analyst’s expectations (52.1 vs expectations of 55.7).
