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Mortgage News

 

CPI
CPI for August rose by +.1%, coming in as expected following the prior read of +.3%. The headline saw a -1.9% decline in energy prices, while the Core read (ex-food/energy) saw a +.3% gain vs. expected +.2%. This is now the third consecutive print for the core level at +.3%. Looking now YoY, headline CPI fell to 1.7% from 1.8%, while the core rose to 2.4% from 2.2% on its fastest pace since back in summer 2018. Overall, nothing here in the data that should sway the Fed’s rate and policy decision next week.

PPI
PPI for August came in above expectations up 0.1% MoM, expectations were for them to come in flat, while the YoY increase is 1.8%. Digging into the details, core PPI was up 0.3% m/m, beating expectations of up 0.2% MoM. This release doesn’t include tariffs, still not a bad beat.

Retail Sales
Retail Sales for August rose by +.4% vs. the upwardly revised +.8% print in the prior month (originally +.7%). Spending in autos drove August’s headline number, gaining +1.8% MoM.
If we look at sales ex-autos, sales were flat. Stripping out both autos and gas sales, we see a +.1% rise following the previous +.9%. Finally, YoY, retail sales have now risen +4.1%. Overall, we see some mixed results here; however, the consumer is still willing to spend and that bodes well for GDP in Q3.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose by +2.2 points on its prelim read to 92.0. This is a bit of a refresher after the index fell by -8.6 points between the last couple of months.

Import Prices
Import Prices fell in August by -.5% vs. expectations of -.1%.
A -4.3% drag in fuels led the decline on the headline number, while we also see food prices dropping as well, down by -.3% on a fourth-straight monthly decline. YoY, import prices are down by -2%. Export prices fell by -.6% and have now posted down -1.4% YoY.

 

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