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Weekly Market Update
Mortgage rates edged slightly upward this week amid heightened market uncertainty. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, mortgage activity picked up, and a new U.S.-UK trade deal made headlines.
At its May 7 meeting, the Fed maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.5% for the third straight time. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted concerns over stagflation — rising inflation alongside slowing growth and higher unemployment — driven in part by the Trump administration’s tariff policies. With a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 and inflation above target, the Fed chose a cautious, data-driven stance over immediate rate cuts.
On May 8, President Trump announced a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the UK. While specifics remain limited, the deal is being framed as a positive for both economies. The Bank of England, which cut its base rate to 4.25% the same day, expressed cautious optimism about the potential for reduced trade uncertainty.
Despite economic headwinds, mortgage applications rose 11% in the week ending May 2, fueled by move-up and first-time buyers. This suggests that many are still finding opportunities in the current market, even as affordability challenges persist.
Weekly Snapshot:
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Consumer Sentiment: Fell 8% in April; expectations index down 32% since January
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Inflation Expectations: One-year outlook at 3.6%, highest since October 2023
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Initial Jobless Claims: Down 13,000 to 228,000 for the week ending May 3
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10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.33% as of May 8
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Mortgage Applications: Up 11% week-over-week ending May 2
Markets remain uneasy as policymakers juggle inflation, trade shifts, and evolving consumer behavior. With the Fed maintaining a patient approach and global trade dynamics in flux, continued volatility is likely in the near term
Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged last week. Mortgage application submissions surged a couple weeks ago. The Fed left the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Jobless claims slipped.
How will the Fed face market movement from tariffs going forward? Listen Now >>
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Mortgage application submissions surged 11% during the week ending 5/2. Both refinance and purchase application submissions jumped 11%.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at this month’s meeting.
Continuing jobless claims were at a level of 1,879,000 during the week ending 4/26, a decrease of roughly 30,000 from the week before. Initial jobless claims were at a level of 228,000 during the week ending 5/3, a decrease of 13,000 from the week before.
